I do my level best to live my life as an optimist, but there are two very important caveats to that statement. First, I wasn’t always this way, and I can attribute that to growing up as a fan of the Philadelphia Phillies, a baseball team that has lost a record 10,282 games in their 128-year history.
Second, and more importantly, I have an acute sense of the proper time to ditch the optimism in situations where all hope is clearly lost. If one uses their imagination, one can imagine that in October of 1781, there was more than likely an optimist on General Cornwallis’ British Army staff telling him with great fervor that they could withstand the Siege of Yorktown. One can also imagine this person getting his head smacked prior to being pushed down a flight of stairs by a less-optimistic staff member for not recognizing the reality of the situation.
With these beliefs in tow, I reviewed the latest chest-thumping report regarding the CMS Payment Error Rate that was released this week.
It is with great fanfare that Medicare is proud to announce that the current payment error rate for the Medicare program is 8.6%, which resulted in improper payments estimated to be $28.8 billion. To put this number in context, I myself could earn the amount of money overpaid by just the Medicare program if I were employed at my current salary for well over 500,000 years. Sadly, current averages indicate that I have 33 years of life left, with only a fraction of that time invested in working (kidding….I think).
Yet, golly gee whiz, that’s an improvement, for you see, the error rate in 2010 was 9.1%, resulting in $29.7 billion in overpayments. So instead of one out of every 11 claims being paid incorrectly, now it’s one out of every 12. You know, Jesus found out that Judas was one of his 12 apostles in error, but hey, he figured how much damage could this one guy do since he was outnumbered by the good guys?
The super wonderful skippity-do crazy fun time doesn’t end there, folks. The Medicare Advantage error rate now stands at only 11% for $12.4 billion in improper payments, which is an improvement over the 14.1% rate from 2010. The Medicaid payment rate, said Pollyanna, decreased 1.3 percentage points to 8.1%, or $21.9 billion in improper payments. Medicare Part D, keeping the elderly medicated since 2006, hasn’t had the same amount of time to invest in screwing up payments, so that error rate stands at 3.2%, or $1.7 billion dollars.
Missing from the data is a payment error rate for the Children’s Health Insurance Plan (CHIP), due to currently incomplete data. This error rate will be published in 2012.
As with any report, CMS gives you the highlights and skirts around the real issue. For the part they left out, and for a bit of Friday fun, let’s go to the calculator.
I’m not an accountant, I don’t play one on TV and I look silly with a green visor on my head, but my rough calculations tell me that about $771 billion dollars was paid out of all of these programs in Fiscal Year 2011, with $64.8 billion being paid out improperly. This leaves us with a cumulative error rate somewhere in the neighborhood of 8.4%. This means that the Medicare Administrative Carriers pay one out of every 12 claims incorrectly, and, as a not-so-subtle reminder, without fear of reprisal or punishment.
The bad news is that the financial ship continues to sink. The good news, to hear CMS tell it, is that instead of four people bailing water to keep the ship afloat, we now have five. Meanwhile, the hole where the water is flowing in is in plain sight, the tools are there to fix it, but everybody’s bailing water and ignoring it, saying things are getting better.
I end today not with rosy optimism, but with a plea to the reader to tell me which one of the bailers I need to push down the stairs.

